| Hotaru vs Kazuya | 58–47 | 55.24% |
| Hotaru vs Jin | 38–39 | 49.35% |
| Hotaru vs Paul | 36–40 | 47.37% |
| Hotaru vs King | 40–30 | 57.14% |
| Hotaru vs Bryan | 31–37 | 45.59% |
| Hotaru vs Hwoarang | 28–36 | 43.75% |
| Hotaru vs Reina | 37–26 | 58.73% |
| Hotaru vs Dragunov | 23–22 | 51.11% |
| Hotaru vs Law | 23–20 | 53.49% |
| Hotaru vs Steve | 26–14 | 65.00% |
| Hotaru vs Leo | 21–19 | 52.50% |
| Hotaru vs Jun | 17–17 | 50.00% |
| Hotaru vs Yoshimitsu | 22–11 | 66.67% |
| Hotaru vs Victor | 14–16 | 46.67% |
| Hotaru vs Lili | 20–8 | 71.43% |
| Hotaru vs Lars | 13–13 | 50.00% |
| Hotaru vs Eddy | 17–9 | 65.38% |
| Hotaru vs Asuka | 10–13 | 43.48% |
| Hotaru vs Lee | 7–14 | 33.33% |
| Hotaru vs Devil Jin | 11–9 | 55.00% |
| Hotaru vs Xiaoyu | 6–13 | 31.58% |
| Hotaru vs Azucena | 8–11 | 42.11% |
| Hotaru vs Leroy | 9–9 | 50.00% |
| Hotaru vs Alisa | 7–10 | 41.18% |
| Hotaru vs Jack-8 | 6–10 | 37.50% |
| Hotaru vs Nina | 5–10 | 33.33% |
| Hotaru vs Lidia | 8–7 | 53.33% |
| Hotaru vs Feng | 5–9 | 35.71% |
| Hotaru vs Claudio | 10–2 | 83.33% |
| Hotaru vs Raven | 6–3 | 66.67% |
| Hotaru vs Shaheen | 0–4 | 0.00% |
| Hotaru vs Kuma | 1–3 | 25.00% |
| Hotaru vs Heihachi | 2–2 | 50.00% |
| Hotaru vs Zafina | 2–1 | 66.67% |
| Hotaru vs Clive | 3–0 | 100.00% |
| Hotaru vs Anna | 0–2 | 0.00% |
| Hotaru vs Fahkumram | 1–0 | 100.00% |
Limitations
This data is often requested to give insight into which characters you have more trouble with than others, but it is not particularly helpful for that. The main issue is that it is heavily skewed by how strong the opponents you play are.
For example, this data suggests my worst matchup is clearly vs Reina, but that's just because most of those games are vs Yagami.
There is a way to account for this being worked on. The central idea is to assign each matchup a rating vs you which adjusts based on the result, much like the regular rating but also based on the rating of each player. With this, it would give a better summary of how well you perform vs each character.
In the meantime, this page is here to present the data as requested.