| Lightning vs Jin | 124–117 | 51.45% |
| Lightning vs Kazuya | 124–107 | 53.68% |
| Lightning vs King | 114–98 | 53.77% |
| Lightning vs Hwoarang | 97–104 | 48.26% |
| Lightning vs Dragunov | 107–93–1 | 53.50% |
| Lightning vs Bryan | 92–98 | 48.42% |
| Lightning vs Heihachi | 73–78 | 48.34% |
| Lightning vs Steve | 79–62 | 56.03% |
| Lightning vs Law | 58–78 | 42.65% |
| Lightning vs Reina | 70–65 | 51.85% |
| Lightning vs Paul | 66–63 | 51.16% |
| Lightning vs Lili | 57–67 | 45.97% |
| Lightning vs Yoshimitsu | 49–70 | 41.18% |
| Lightning vs Lars | 74–42 | 63.79% |
| Lightning vs Lidia | 62–42 | 59.62% |
| Lightning vs Asuka | 53–50 | 51.46% |
| Lightning vs Victor | 56–46 | 54.90% |
| Lightning vs Devil Jin | 53–47 | 53.00% |
| Lightning vs Jun | 50–43 | 53.76% |
| Lightning vs Clive | 45–46 | 49.45% |
| Lightning vs Lee | 58–29 | 66.67% |
| Lightning vs Leo | 42–43 | 49.41% |
| Lightning vs Xiaoyu | 40–43 | 48.19% |
| Lightning vs Leroy | 40–41 | 49.38% |
| Lightning vs Feng | 39–38 | 50.65% |
| Lightning vs Alisa | 35–42 | 45.45% |
| Lightning vs Eddy | 40–37 | 51.95% |
| Lightning vs Azucena | 28–38 | 42.42% |
| Lightning vs Claudio | 27–38 | 41.54% |
| Lightning vs Armor King | 32–31 | 50.79% |
| Lightning vs Anna | 23–35 | 39.66% |
| Lightning vs Jack-8 | 26–25 | 50.98% |
| Lightning vs Nina | 21–24 | 46.67% |
| Lightning vs Raven | 15–30 | 33.33% |
| Lightning vs Fahkumram | 19–24 | 44.19% |
| Lightning vs Zafina | 21–19 | 52.50% |
| Lightning vs Kuma | 14–20 | 41.18% |
| Lightning vs Shaheen | 9–23 | 28.12% |
| Lightning vs Panda | 2–4 | 33.33% |
Limitations
This data is often requested to give insight into which characters you have more trouble with than others, but it is not particularly helpful for that. The main issue is that it is heavily skewed by how strong the opponents you play are.
For example, this data suggests my worst matchup is clearly vs Reina, but that's just because most of those games are vs Yagami.
There is a way to account for this being worked on. The central idea is to assign each matchup a rating vs you which adjusts based on the result, much like the regular rating but also based on the rating of each player. With this, it would give a better summary of how well you perform vs each character.
In the meantime, this page is here to present the data as requested.