| Hot Water vs Kazuya | 113–89 | 55.94% |
| Hot Water vs Jin | 108–66 | 62.07% |
| Hot Water vs Bryan | 85–72 | 54.14% |
| Hot Water vs Reina | 78–72 | 52.00% |
| Hot Water vs Steve | 79–51 | 60.77% |
| Hot Water vs King | 76–50 | 60.32% |
| Hot Water vs Paul | 59–60 | 49.58% |
| Hot Water vs Hwoarang | 55–52 | 51.40% |
| Hot Water vs Yoshimitsu | 59–38 | 60.82% |
| Hot Water vs Feng | 46–48 | 48.94% |
| Hot Water vs Dragunov | 45–49 | 47.87% |
| Hot Water vs Lili | 50–42 | 54.35% |
| Hot Water vs Jun | 40–43 | 48.19% |
| Hot Water vs Jack-8 | 40–40 | 50.00% |
| Hot Water vs Devil Jin | 42–36 | 53.85% |
| Hot Water vs Lars | 35–43 | 44.87% |
| Hot Water vs Lee | 37–39 | 48.68% |
| Hot Water vs Law | 39–35 | 52.70% |
| Hot Water vs Eddy | 37–36 | 50.68% |
| Hot Water vs Nina | 28–35 | 44.44% |
| Hot Water vs Asuka | 37–25 | 59.68% |
| Hot Water vs Shaheen | 24–31 | 43.64% |
| Hot Water vs Victor | 32–22 | 59.26% |
| Hot Water vs Claudio | 28–24 | 53.85% |
| Hot Water vs Leo | 28–17 | 62.22% |
| Hot Water vs Azucena | 15–29 | 34.09% |
| Hot Water vs Xiaoyu | 25–17 | 59.52% |
| Hot Water vs Alisa | 22–17 | 56.41% |
| Hot Water vs Raven | 21–18 | 53.85% |
| Hot Water vs Kuma | 14–23 | 37.84% |
| Hot Water vs Leroy | 13–13 | 50.00% |
| Hot Water vs Zafina | 11–12 | 47.83% |
| Hot Water vs Heihachi | 5–10 | 33.33% |
| Hot Water vs Lidia | 5–6 | 45.45% |
| Hot Water vs Panda | 5–3 | 62.50% |
Limitations
This data is often requested to give insight into which characters you have more trouble with than others, but it is not particularly helpful for that. The main issue is that it is heavily skewed by how strong the opponents you play are.
For example, this data suggests my worst matchup is clearly vs Reina, but that's just because most of those games are vs Yagami.
There is a way to account for this being worked on. The central idea is to assign each matchup a rating vs you which adjusts based on the result, much like the regular rating but also based on the rating of each player. With this, it would give a better summary of how well you perform vs each character.
In the meantime, this page is here to present the data as requested.