| LikelyToasted vs Reina | 37–42 | 46.84% |
| LikelyToasted vs King | 32–38 | 45.71% |
| LikelyToasted vs Jin | 23–28 | 45.10% |
| LikelyToasted vs Steve | 30–19 | 61.22% |
| LikelyToasted vs Lidia | 26–22 | 54.17% |
| LikelyToasted vs Hwoarang | 21–24 | 46.67% |
| LikelyToasted vs Azucena | 15–21 | 41.67% |
| LikelyToasted vs Law | 13–20 | 39.39% |
| LikelyToasted vs Leroy | 17–14 | 54.84% |
| LikelyToasted vs Jun | 13–18 | 41.94% |
| LikelyToasted vs Bryan | 12–18 | 40.00% |
| LikelyToasted vs Xiaoyu | 12–17 | 41.38% |
| LikelyToasted vs Victor | 19–10 | 65.52% |
| LikelyToasted vs Dragunov | 19–9 | 67.86% |
| LikelyToasted vs Eddy | 10–17–1 | 37.04% |
| LikelyToasted vs Yoshimitsu | 11–16 | 40.74% |
| LikelyToasted vs Kazuya | 12–14 | 46.15% |
| LikelyToasted vs Devil Jin | 9–16 | 36.00% |
| LikelyToasted vs Lili | 12–13 | 48.00% |
| LikelyToasted vs Leo | 8–16 | 33.33% |
| LikelyToasted vs Paul | 11–9 | 55.00% |
| LikelyToasted vs Alisa | 6–14 | 30.00% |
| LikelyToasted vs Lars | 6–13 | 31.58% |
| LikelyToasted vs Lee | 5–14 | 26.32% |
| LikelyToasted vs Nina | 5–13 | 27.78% |
| LikelyToasted vs Shaheen | 4–10 | 28.57% |
| LikelyToasted vs Heihachi | 5–9 | 35.71% |
| LikelyToasted vs Raven | 9–4 | 69.23% |
| LikelyToasted vs Asuka | 5–7 | 41.67% |
| LikelyToasted vs Zafina | 6–6 | 50.00% |
| LikelyToasted vs Feng | 3–5 | 37.50% |
| LikelyToasted vs Claudio | 3–5 | 37.50% |
| LikelyToasted vs Jack-8 | 3–4 | 42.86% |
| LikelyToasted vs Clive | 2–3 | 40.00% |
| LikelyToasted vs Kuma | 1–3 | 25.00% |
| LikelyToasted vs Panda | 2–0 | 100.00% |
Limitations
This data is often requested to give insight into which characters you have more trouble with than others, but it is not particularly helpful for that. The main issue is that it is heavily skewed by how strong the opponents you play are.
For example, this data suggests my worst matchup is clearly vs Reina, but that's just because most of those games are vs Yagami.
There is a way to account for this being worked on. The central idea is to assign each matchup a rating vs you which adjusts based on the result, much like the regular rating but also based on the rating of each player. With this, it would give a better summary of how well you perform vs each character.
In the meantime, this page is here to present the data as requested.