| Last Carnival vs Hwoarang | 171–224 | 43.29% |
| Last Carnival vs Jin | 171–187 | 47.77% |
| Last Carnival vs Dragunov | 144–186 | 43.64% |
| Last Carnival vs Kazuya | 134–192 | 41.10% |
| Last Carnival vs Paul | 129–186 | 40.95% |
| Last Carnival vs King | 156–149 | 51.15% |
| Last Carnival vs Bryan | 122–140 | 46.56% |
| Last Carnival vs Reina | 134–119 | 52.96% |
| Last Carnival vs Steve | 95–117 | 44.81% |
| Last Carnival vs Lili | 94–109 | 46.31% |
| Last Carnival vs Law | 103–77 | 57.22% |
| Last Carnival vs Victor | 79–96 | 45.14% |
| Last Carnival vs Asuka | 73–97 | 42.94% |
| Last Carnival vs Yoshimitsu | 83–85 | 49.40% |
| Last Carnival vs Lars | 74–76 | 49.33% |
| Last Carnival vs Feng | 55–90 | 37.93% |
| Last Carnival vs Jun | 64–77 | 45.39% |
| Last Carnival vs Xiaoyu | 67–72 | 48.20% |
| Last Carnival vs Devil Jin | 64–75 | 46.04% |
| Last Carnival vs Alisa | 72–67 | 51.80% |
| Last Carnival vs Lee | 56–76 | 42.42% |
| Last Carnival vs Nina | 46–73 | 38.66% |
| Last Carnival vs Azucena | 62–54 | 53.45% |
| Last Carnival vs Claudio | 55–60 | 47.83% |
| Last Carnival vs Lidia | 62–51 | 54.87% |
| Last Carnival vs Heihachi | 49–58 | 45.79% |
| Last Carnival vs Jack-8 | 42–55 | 43.30% |
| Last Carnival vs Leo | 47–40 | 54.02% |
| Last Carnival vs Leroy | 32–55 | 36.78% |
| Last Carnival vs Eddy | 36–43 | 45.57% |
| Last Carnival vs Raven | 37–35 | 51.39% |
| Last Carnival vs Zafina | 31–34 | 47.69% |
| Last Carnival vs Clive | 24–40 | 37.50% |
| Last Carnival vs Kuma | 23–38 | 37.70% |
| Last Carnival vs Shaheen | 23–31 | 42.59% |
| Last Carnival vs Anna | 26–24 | 52.00% |
| Last Carnival vs Fahkumram | 18–21 | 46.15% |
| Last Carnival vs Panda | 13–20 | 39.39% |
| Last Carnival vs Miary Zo | 0–4 | 0.00% |
| Last Carnival vs Armor King | 0–1 | 0.00% |
Limitations
This data is often requested to give insight into which characters you have more trouble with than others, but it is not particularly helpful for that. The main issue is that it is heavily skewed by how strong the opponents you play are.
For example, this data suggests my worst matchup is clearly vs Reina, but that's just because most of those games are vs Yagami.
There is a way to account for this being worked on. The central idea is to assign each matchup a rating vs you which adjusts based on the result, much like the regular rating but also based on the rating of each player. With this, it would give a better summary of how well you perform vs each character.
In the meantime, this page is here to present the data as requested.