| Pastry vs King | 48–44 | 52.17% |
| Pastry vs Reina | 55–36 | 60.44% |
| Pastry vs Kazuya | 43–47 | 47.78% |
| Pastry vs Hwoarang | 46–43 | 51.69% |
| Pastry vs Steve | 41–45 | 47.67% |
| Pastry vs Jin | 34–45 | 43.04% |
| Pastry vs Bryan | 35–41 | 46.05% |
| Pastry vs Law | 33–38 | 46.48% |
| Pastry vs Heihachi | 38–26 | 59.38% |
| Pastry vs Azucena | 35–26 | 57.38% |
| Pastry vs Jun | 30–27 | 52.63% |
| Pastry vs Yoshimitsu | 20–36 | 35.71% |
| Pastry vs Paul | 20–31 | 39.22% |
| Pastry vs Nina | 26–23 | 53.06% |
| Pastry vs Jack-8 | 30–18 | 62.50% |
| Pastry vs Eddy | 33–15 | 68.75% |
| Pastry vs Asuka | 27–18 | 60.00% |
| Pastry vs Dragunov | 30–15 | 66.67% |
| Pastry vs Lars | 23–21 | 52.27% |
| Pastry vs Xiaoyu | 23–19 | 54.76% |
| Pastry vs Clive | 20–22 | 47.62% |
| Pastry vs Leo | 20–21 | 48.78% |
| Pastry vs Lili | 21–19 | 52.50% |
| Pastry vs Lidia | 26–14 | 65.00% |
| Pastry vs Miary Zo | 21–17 | 55.26% |
| Pastry vs Lee | 19–18 | 51.35% |
| Pastry vs Alisa | 14–18 | 43.75% |
| Pastry vs Victor | 16–16 | 50.00% |
| Pastry vs Anna | 17–14 | 54.84% |
| Pastry vs Feng | 14–15 | 48.28% |
| Pastry vs Shaheen | 14–14 | 50.00% |
| Pastry vs Raven | 12–9 | 57.14% |
| Pastry vs Devil Jin | 8–10 | 44.44% |
| Pastry vs Zafina | 7–10 | 41.18% |
| Pastry vs Leroy | 10–7 | 58.82% |
| Pastry vs Armor King | 6–6 | 50.00% |
| Pastry vs Fahkumram | 7–4 | 63.64% |
| Pastry vs Claudio | 1–6 | 14.29% |
| Pastry vs Kuma | 4–3 | 57.14% |
| Pastry vs Panda | 3–3 | 50.00% |
Limitations
This data is often requested to give insight into which characters you have more trouble with than others, but it is not particularly helpful for that. The main issue is that it is heavily skewed by how strong the opponents you play are.
For example, this data suggests my worst matchup is clearly vs Reina, but that's just because most of those games are vs Yagami.
There is a way to account for this being worked on. The central idea is to assign each matchup a rating vs you which adjusts based on the result, much like the regular rating but also based on the rating of each player. With this, it would give a better summary of how well you perform vs each character.
In the meantime, this page is here to present the data as requested.