| Colonel Cake vs Jin | 311–251 | 55.34% |
| Colonel Cake vs Bryan | 263–230 | 53.35% |
| Colonel Cake vs Kazuya | 253–207 | 55.00% |
| Colonel Cake vs Hwoarang | 206–253 | 44.88% |
| Colonel Cake vs King | 238–200 | 54.34% |
| Colonel Cake vs Steve | 211–207 | 50.48% |
| Colonel Cake vs Law | 200–173 | 53.62% |
| Colonel Cake vs Yoshimitsu | 217–154 | 58.49% |
| Colonel Cake vs Lili | 199–153 | 56.53% |
| Colonel Cake vs Reina | 165–174 | 48.67% |
| Colonel Cake vs Devil Jin | 182–139 | 56.70% |
| Colonel Cake vs Heihachi | 152–157 | 49.19% |
| Colonel Cake vs Lee | 179–129 | 58.12% |
| Colonel Cake vs Dragunov | 153–139 | 52.40% |
| Colonel Cake vs Lars | 126–152 | 45.32% |
| Colonel Cake vs Raven | 129–125 | 50.79% |
| Colonel Cake vs Paul | 130–122 | 51.59% |
| Colonel Cake vs Xiaoyu | 124–124 | 50.00% |
| Colonel Cake vs Feng | 131–117 | 52.82% |
| Colonel Cake vs Victor | 157–84 | 65.15% |
| Colonel Cake vs Jun | 143–96 | 59.83% |
| Colonel Cake vs Lidia | 106–132 | 44.54% |
| Colonel Cake vs Asuka | 121–112 | 51.93% |
| Colonel Cake vs Azucena | 126–97 | 56.50% |
| Colonel Cake vs Jack-8 | 111–108 | 50.68% |
| Colonel Cake vs Claudio | 110–109 | 50.23% |
| Colonel Cake vs Eddy | 104–107 | 49.29% |
| Colonel Cake vs Leo | 100–106 | 48.54% |
| Colonel Cake vs Alisa | 97–98 | 49.74% |
| Colonel Cake vs Nina | 92–93 | 49.73% |
| Colonel Cake vs Zafina | 86–79 | 52.12% |
| Colonel Cake vs Leroy | 93–69 | 57.41% |
| Colonel Cake vs Shaheen | 83–78 | 51.55% |
| Colonel Cake vs Armor King | 78–67–1 | 53.79% |
| Colonel Cake vs Fahkumram | 68–71 | 48.92% |
| Colonel Cake vs Clive | 67–65 | 50.76% |
| Colonel Cake vs Kuma | 64–47 | 57.66% |
| Colonel Cake vs Anna | 53–54 | 49.53% |
| Colonel Cake vs Miary Zo | 37–43 | 46.25% |
| Colonel Cake vs Panda | 34–26 | 56.67% |
Limitations
This data is often requested to give insight into which characters you have more trouble with than others, but it is not particularly helpful for that. The main issue is that it is heavily skewed by how strong the opponents you play are.
For example, this data suggests my worst matchup is clearly vs Reina, but that's just because most of those games are vs Yagami.
There is a way to account for this being worked on. The central idea is to assign each matchup a rating vs you which adjusts based on the result, much like the regular rating but also based on the rating of each player. With this, it would give a better summary of how well you perform vs each character.
In the meantime, this page is here to present the data as requested.